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ICE car sales Ban

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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Woodster » 20 Nov 2020, 12:55

RogerS wrote:
Woodster wrote:
All that this chart shows is the number of new cars sold in Norway in that period. To try and infer any corollary with the UK is meaningless as you are ignoring the context.


At no point did I compare the UK with Norway. You’re trying to bend things to support your view.

I just suggested that if even half of the myriad of objections you’ve put forward were even half true then no country would be able to do it, not even Norway.

I realise it’s pointless talking about EV charging because you don’t understand, don’t want to listen and won’t click on any links that would educate you. But the number of charging points is increasing rapidly. There are over 12,000 charging stations in the UK at the moment with over 20,000 charging points. 433 new charging points were added in the last 30 days. Battery development is accelerating as well and it will soon be possible to get a full charge in 15 mins.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... utive-says

EV development and the required support is still developing as these things do with any new technology.
The difference between us is that I believe they have a future and you don’t. If as you believe it’s all impossible and totally pointless why do you think these things are happening?

https://www.electrive.com/2020/11/06/ma ... n-by-2030/

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new- ... art-rivian
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 20 Nov 2020, 13:41

Woodster, I shall retire gracefully from further discussion with you on this topic as it will serve no useful purpose as you're clearly not listening or understanding what I am saying or where I am coming from.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Woodster » 20 Nov 2020, 15:27

I understand your objections Roger and I sympathise but all the evidence at the moment is that EV’s are set to become a major part of personal transport whether folks like it or not, particularly in the UK and Europe. This graphic is a brief insight into the major Motoring Manufacturers EV timeline over just the next ten years. Are they making a huge mistake? We’ll have to wait and see but personally I’m looking forward to getting my first EV in a few years time. :D

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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby StevieB » 20 Nov 2020, 18:23

You are arguing from different sides of the equation :)

Yes, EVs will be an increasing component of personal transport in the future and deadlines/instructions from government will hasten this. However, significant limitations in charging mean this will not be ubiquitous and there are significant hurdles to 100% adoption that will push this well past 2030 and in all honesty probably 2050 when ICE vehicles die out and the only option is EV.

Advances in technology will help and shift deadlines, and we may find that infrastructure forces a delay in the 2030 deadline, but we know politicians think only as far as the next election and not a day further. You cannot have HS2 and extra airport runways on the one hand, and a green utopia and 100% renewable energy on the other. Even if we achieve this here, will it make a difference worldwide? This is an announcement prior to a climate conference later this year remember, not enshrined in law or anything binding (currently).

Any how much lithium is there in the world to be mined for batteries anyway..... this debate does drive innovation though and could speed up other technologies such as hydrogen power - it would be a brave person to bet the farm on EV charging from a home point for all!
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Lons » 20 Nov 2020, 19:19

I'll throw something else into the charging debate but note I'm trying not to be negative just realistic.

For arguments sake lets assume that EVs and ICEs have the same range on a full tank / battery and that car ownership numbers doesn't change there are currently 8300+fuel stations in the UK and very few that I've been in unless very old have less than 10 pump outlets, many have twice that number so again FAS say an average of 15 that's nearly 125000 available petrol/diesel pumps serving around 38 million ICE vehicles.
You can fill up an ICE car in a maximum of 10 minutes including preparation and payment unless you have to queue.
Let's say EVs do get down to 15 minutes, that will only be the newer ones, lets say only half of them so average charging time will be more and add to that the same as ICEs parking up, connecting and payment perhaps a generous 30 minutes in total so it will still be easily 3 times the time it takes for an ICE.

My maths tells me that to get the same energy facilities it would need 125000 x 3 = 375000 available points. Say 50% of charging is done at home it's still the best part of 190000 charging facility points needed. Maybe many more if there isn't some standardisation.

Over simplification I know and we can only guess at much of the future technology but as I sad there's still aways to go imo and I won't be seriously considering an EV until we're a lot further down the line.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Lons » 20 Nov 2020, 19:32

That's an interesting chart Woodster but what it says to me is that none of the manufacturers are going to meet the deadline of 2030 in the UK so plans will need to change dramatically as the UK is a major market none of them can afford to lose. Can you imagine BMW losing 50% of European sales, Honda 30% global or VW 60% global ( I haven't looked at their UK sales but easy enough to check

Only Mazda gets close but even that includes hybrids.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby droogs » 21 Nov 2020, 12:43

Lons the argument you put forward is based on a flawed assumption. You are comparing the refuelling process of "apples and pears". Your mindset is seems to be stuck in the only way to refuel is they way it is done by habit for ICE vehicles. BEV ownership , usage and refuelling uses a completely different approach.
~You don't top up to the max and then use the car until you only have the dreggs of fuel in the tank and then top up again as most do with ICE. If you did that your battery pack would have a very very short life. BEV ownership requires a relearning of both usage and how to refuel. For the moment you need to sit down initially and look at how you use the car. For most if only really to commute then chargin once a week at a rapid charger will do for others maybe topping up every night is needed. But the new way is to keep the power in your battery between 20 and 80%. Top up as you go. so park up and charge at a charger at the parking bay at work or the shops even if only for 10 mins. You continuously top up each time you park, you also recover some pwer with regen engin braking rather than brake pedal braking.
The intention is to have an infrustructre that is wide spread and integrated. If everyone "tethers" their car when not in use it halps balance the grid and you are payed for any power removed and recharged if not needed. You can set a minimum amount of power you need to get home from where you are and then over night the car will top up as you sleep. The top up does not need to be in 5 min for almost 99% of the time you own the car.

We will see more public charge points appear but also the tech is now being introduced to have wireless charging. a "p;ate" is put in each parking space that is a 2 way charging system to enable V2G and grid balancing. Bus companies are looking at introducing this technology with 12 months. Each bustop will have its own plat e and every bus that stops there will be given a bit of charge. over the corse of a day the buss will get enough top up to keep going for a full shift if it starts from a full charge at the depot after charging overnight.
This tech is being pushed to be rolled out to the whole of the UK to every car park space including marking out street parking bays and installing. The softwre in the car then allows you to charge at any one of them.

going to a paticular place that may not be local and breathing in awful stinky guff for 5 - 10 mins at least once a week will be a thing of the past

It is just a case of relearning a few things . The overall effect being a cleaner and more pleasnt environment around you
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 21 Nov 2020, 13:51

droogs wrote:.... Top up as you go. so park up and charge at a charger at the parking bay at work or the shops even if only for 10 mins. You continuously top up each time you park, .....


What a PITA, droogs. I see carpark fights for the chargers...assuming that ALL BEVs can support rapid charge. So now not only would I have to hunt around trying to find an empty parking space but I'd have to find an empty parking space WITH a charger !

Do all BEVs support rapid charging ? My understanding is that not all of them do.

Question...are the plugs the same for all cars ?

droogs wrote:
The intention is to have an infrustructre that is wide spread and integrated. If everyone "tethers" their car when not in use it halps balance the grid and you are payed for any power removed and recharged if not needed. .


Pie-in-the-sky, mate. Nice idea but the capital cost and upheaval is stratospheric.

droogs wrote:.....
This tech is being pushed to be rolled out to the whole of the UK to every car park space including marking out street parking bays and installing.


ROTFLMAO. It ain't going to happen. Who is going to pay for it ? I suggest that a levy is put on all BEVs to cover the cost. Do you know how many car parking spaces are estimated to be in the UK ? Between 3 and 4 million. Conservative estimate to convert one would be about £20k I reckon.

Droogs...I admire your optimism and I accept that eventually ICE will be gone but we are talking 50 years at least.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Woodster » 21 Nov 2020, 14:04

The thing about charging is that there are more than enough charging points for the number of EV’s on the road at the moment. EV drivers say range anxiety is a myth as their vehicles display all the available charging points on a map and even show which are in use and which are available. As I mentioned earlier there were 433 charging points added in the last 30 days. As more folks buy EV’s more charging points will be added to meet demand. Actually I think charging points are being added ahead of use, at least it seems that way.

If we were to use the analogy put forward by some, ICE cars shouldn’t exist. Early cars had low MPG figures and didn't carry that much fuel. Their range therefore was not that good and there weren’t any petrol stations for the first 25 years! EV’s are already in a much better position than this.

Even with the high cost of buying an EV they are still cheaper to run than petrol or diesel. Purchase price parity between EV and ICE is expected by 2024. EV’s are nicer to drive and produce less local pollution. For the vast majority of new car buyers EV’s will make much more sense.

The way people live changes slowly over time driven largely by technology. It won’t be long before breathing in carcinogenic Benzene fumes whilst putting petrol in your car will be a thing of the past for the majority of motorists in the UK and the rest of Europe. Sadly other parts of the world may not be so lucky.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Robert » 21 Nov 2020, 15:48

I'm not getting into this deep debate but I have seen a couple of things recently that seem like good ideas.

On youtube fully charged show they did a piece on a chinese EV company that make a model with a replaceable battery. You drive to a swap station and 10 minutes later drive out again with a new full battery. You pay for the difference between what is left in the old battery and a full one. Changeover and recharging is all done by machine.

Then there was a piece on BBC click just now where the EV battery is used as a 'power wall' for the house supply with an app that you program to leave enough reserve for your planned next journey. Makes solar more sensible I'd have thought.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby droogs » 21 Nov 2020, 16:42

Roger your time scale is way out, how many people do you know who only have a landline phone a decade ago it would have been at least half of the people you know, 20 nearly all. Homany of them still have their original flip phone and not a smart phone? Same with cars. There are 2 famous photos of new york taken 10 years apart. The first shows 1 car on the street and around 4000 horses. The next is the complete oposite 1 horse in a sea of model Ts. Adoption is exponential and the adoption point has been reached for BEV. Within 10 years no major maker will sell ICE cars regardless of legislation as no one will want enough of them to be viable
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 21 Nov 2020, 18:14

droogs wrote:Roger your time scale is way out, how many people do you know who only have a landline phone a decade ago it would have been at least half of the people you know, 20 nearly all. Homany of them still have their original flip phone and not a smart phone? Same with cars. There are 2 famous photos of new york taken 10 years apart. The first shows 1 car on the street and around 4000 horses. The next is the complete oposite 1 horse in a sea of model Ts. Adoption is exponential and the adoption point has been reached for BEV. Within 10 years no major maker will sell ICE cars regardless of legislation as no one will want enough of them to be viable


I'm not denying any of that. They are all consumer items. What I am challenging are these statements :

so park up and charge at a charger at the parking bay at work.. An awful lot of companies don't have enough car parking space ...sometimes none at all..so that idea is a non-starter. Spending your lunch hour driving around trying to find an empty charging point (along with everybody else at the same time) is going to be very popular.

This tech is being pushed to be rolled out to the whole of the UK to every car park space including marking out street parking bays and installing.. That simply is not realistic in terms of scale, cost, upheaval etc.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Blackswanwood » 21 Nov 2020, 18:17

droogs wrote:Roger your time scale is way out, how many people do you know who only have a landline phone a decade ago it would have been at least half of the people you know, 20 nearly all. Homany of them still have their original flip phone and not a smart phone? Same with cars. There are 2 famous photos of new york taken 10 years apart. The first shows 1 car on the street and around 4000 horses. The next is the complete oposite 1 horse in a sea of model Ts. Adoption is exponential and the adoption point has been reached for BEV. Within 10 years no major maker will sell ICE cars regardless of legislation as no one will want enough of them to be viable



I think these are the pictures ... on the left 1900 and the right 1913.

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On the issue of charging stations many local authorities are now making it a planning condition that EV charging is provided for new developments.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Lons » 21 Nov 2020, 18:46

Hi Droogs
I'm not really stuck in a mindset and have said already that I'm not anti BEV or even pro ICE, I drive the car that suits me in terms of what I want, what I need, what is convenient and what is affordable, for me I have looked hard when I bought my car 3 years ago and my wife's less than 2 months ago there wasn't a BEV that could tick all those boxes. In future I have no doubt there will be and when that time comes I'll buy what suits.

I do have doubts about the charging requirements being met by 2030 and have good reason to be sceptical as most of the decisions and finance will be decided by government where 10 years in politics is a lifetime.
My doubts are of course based on conjecture but then so are your assurances that everything will be hunky dory as none of us know yet exactly how things will pan out. Technology will move on apace but it has to be paid for and removal of ICEs will leave an enormous black hole which will have to be filled by heavily taxing the new modes of transport and likely failing to meet infrastructure targets, but then governments always meet those targets don't they. ;) I would have been perfectly happy to replace my wife's Mini for an electric version instead of petrol but not at the massive premium required to do so.

If I wanted to change my 3 year old quality car at the minute I couldn't find one that is equivalent in size, spec and most importantly price so until that happens won't be buying a BEV.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Woodster » 22 Nov 2020, 00:10

On BBC’s Click today they said it only takes 4 years before you’re quids in with an EV.

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And that’s now. As mentioned, price parity is predicted for 2024.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/22/ub ... y-in-2024/

There seems to be a big difference in people’s attitude over EV’s. The objectionists say it’s all impossible and will never happen. Whilst the more open minded of us just hope it does happen and within the time frame laid out by the present government. If Labour got in next time could they scupper it? Will another bout of Covid delay it by another tens years? Who knows.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Cabinetman » 22 Nov 2020, 15:13

No real thoughts on which side of the debate I’m on, except that I suppose it will happen and in some ways I can’t wait to have a go in one as they can outperform petrol or diesel and quiet!
I just wanted to comment on the depreciation of the petrol car in the example above, can that be right?
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerM » 22 Nov 2020, 15:24

A 4 year old ICE car with 36,000 on the clock after 4 years is barely run in, so it would be a bit of a bargain at £8,400 for the ICE. I suspect that the s/h value after another 4 years would be about £2,000, whereas the value of the elec car would probably have depreciated by more than the ICE car was worth at the outset, as the battery would be degraded by then, and the technology will have improved significantly in the interim. It would be interesting to run the comparison for the next 4 years based on the average s/h buyer scenario.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 22 Nov 2020, 16:00

RogerM wrote:A 4 year old ICE car with 36,000 on the clock after 4 years is barely run in, so it would be a bit of a bargain at £8,400 for the ICE. I suspect that the s/h value after another 4 years would be about £2,000, whereas the value of the elec car would probably have depreciated by more than the ICE car was worth at the outset, as the battery would be degraded by then, and the technology will have improved significantly in the interim. It would be interesting to run the comparison for the next 4 years based on the average s/h buyer scenario.


Roger, you only have to look at who produced that chart - "DriveElectric"- to see how accurate and impartial their figures will be. Laughable, really. Do they really think we are that gullible ?
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 22 Nov 2020, 16:00

Cabinetman wrote:No real thoughts on which side of the debate I’m on, except that I suppose it will happen and in some ways I can’t wait to have a go in one as they can outperform petrol or diesel and quiet!
I just wanted to comment on the depreciation of the petrol car in the example above, can that be right?


No. You're spot on. Chart produced by "DriveElectric". I'm sure that they will be very impartial in their figures.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Woodster » 22 Nov 2020, 23:40

Let’s not forget why the ban on new ICE Cars, particularly Diesel is coming. :D

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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Lons » 23 Nov 2020, 00:25

I don't think there's too much argument on why it's happening but sticking my finger in the air I can see ICE cars holding value much better than those predictions, my reasoning being.

As manufacturers stop or significantly reduce production they will be much more scarce and that usually leeds to premium prices for good examples and there will be plenty of people perfectly happy to buy an ICE in the couple of years before new sales are stopped knowing full well they can run them for many years.

All that is irrespective of any extra taxes they impose which would of course be part of the equation and those doing it will also have worked out that by the time they do need to change over, maybe 2040 or beyond that BEVs will probably have sorted the early issues and there will be also a healthy stock of s/h available and hopefully prices will have become affordable.

Not an argument as I don't know but that's my opinion. :eusa-think:
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Woodster » 23 Nov 2020, 00:40

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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Woodster » 24 Nov 2020, 18:47

I’ve just seen this.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/car ... rence.html

”What is without question is that in the course of the next decade motorists are going to experience the biggest shift change in the vehicles they're driving in over a century”.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Mike » 26 Nov 2020, 19:30

droogs wrote:I'm ex 30 Sigs, 244, 251 and 242 lol


Small world. I worked extensively with 14th Signal before I retired from the U.S. version of MOD. I supported the equipment used in Pristina.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby csalisbury » 27 Nov 2020, 12:12

oh im staying well away from this thread.

But it does always make me ponder how salares on average are 30 ish k yet I see everyone driving cars (that when i look) the payments seems to be 4-600 per month :eusa-think:
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