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It’s getting closer

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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby SamQ aka Ah! Q! » 20 Mar 2020, 15:36

Yes Mike, big bruiser of a molecule, does not aerosol as easily as common cold virus in a sneeze, more droplet as in visible small liquid globules...
Take care Fella, the nadir of symptoms is day 7-8. At that point, your lungs may be susceptible to fluid build up. This is when you really need to monitor it.

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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Mike G » 20 Mar 2020, 15:45

Thanks Sam. So next Tuesday/ Wednesday.......
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby SamQ aka Ah! Q! » 20 Mar 2020, 16:17

"So next Tuesday/ Wednesday......
."

Yup, sounds right on your story, Mike. Just take care and don't be stoic, call for help sooner than later.

Good stats are very hard to come by this early in the disease progression, but the majority of folk, circum 97%, are going to come through this just(!!) rueful, sore and lighter - and that is something that seems to be 'lost in translation'. The "Satan Bug" of cinematic fiction is not C19.

The seriously susceptible have a far higher mortality: cancer patients c.9%, active or recent chemo, perhaps higher. My Missus is one such and - pending THAT letter from Monday onwards - we both* have to utterly isolate for a minimum of three months to allow her immuno-system to 'reboot'. No shopping, no outings, save round the garden, packages (including food) left in our porch for hours in case of surface contamination.

There are 1.4 million people in this bracket, Folks. We are lucky to have a good support system of family and friends, but could peeps out there please be aware of anyone known to them locally? Even getting to Sainsbury's for the 'magic hour' just after opening may prove an impossible risk for those with, say, C.O.P.D. or any immuno-suppression. They need 'gofers' now, and for perhaps months to come. Compassion fatigue is not an allowable option if you decide to help.

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* Because I could be infected/incubating C19.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 20 Mar 2020, 16:25

Mike G wrote:You pick it up from surfaces, Roger, rather than the air. You have to be unlucky to breath it in. Apparently it is a very heavy molecule which falls out of the air rapidly.


I'm afraid that that's not what the latest research reported today in Medscape says. It remains in aerosol for hours and on surfaces for days. Type of surface not specified. Seem to recall reading harder surfaces such as metal and glass ...longer compared to, say, cardboard but long enough on cardboard to raise questions about the best way to handle delivery items.

EDIT: And then you come across another study which suggests the opposite :eusa-doh:
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 20 Mar 2020, 16:27

SamQ aka Ah! Q! wrote:
"So next Tuesday/ Wednesday......
."

Yup, sounds right on your story, Mike. Just take care and don't be stoic, call for help sooner than later.

Good stats are very hard to come by this early in the disease progression, but the majority of folk, circum 97%, are going to come through this just(!!) rueful, sore and lighter - and that is something that seems to be 'lost in translation'. The "Satan Bug" of cinematic fiction is not C19.
.....


Sorry Sam but that's not what the stats are saying. From my doctor chum.

Looking at the statistics of confirmed cases - If you get through week one and start to feel better - you’re generally in the clear (80%). Weeks 2-3 then being the dodgiest if you’ve worsening/non-improving (15% get pneumonia but get better with support) if you’re one of the unlucky who progressively worsen (5% of which) ultimately 2-3% die (Confirmed cases) The virus causes acute respiratory distress syndrome which is as you say more about the immune response and diffuse lung damage then multi organ failure. Being on early ventilatory support is the only option really.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby SamQ aka Ah! Q! » 20 Mar 2020, 16:47

Correction accepted Roger; I was going on perhaps simplified publications from W.H.O. and early N.H.S. stuff and was unaware of the dichotomy at 80%, apologies.

Your comment re week two increase in symptoms resonates with reported work on 'forgotten'' anti-virals from the last Ebola outbreak; they work well in week one of C19, but lose 'potency' in week two. Apparently, something is going on in week two that is not yet understood.

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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 20 Mar 2020, 17:02

The key question that no-one has asked AFAIK is since the Chinese doctors in Wuhan took the time and trouble to publish in The Lancet on 24th January a very detailed scientific article on their findings about this new very infectious and deadly virus ...why did our scientists and politicians ignore it and do SFA ?
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Andyp » 20 Mar 2020, 17:09

Managed to get daughter on the, almost, last flight from Montreal to Paris. How to get her back from Paris is another problem.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Mike G » 20 Mar 2020, 17:11

RogerS wrote:The key question that no-one has asked AFAIK is since the Chinese doctors in Wuhan took the time and trouble to publish in The Lancet on 24th January a very detailed scientific article on their findings about this new very infectious and deadly virus ...why did our scientists and politicians ignore it and do SFA ?



We don't know that they did, Roger. I know that a whole heap of labs leapt at this immediately, and have done some great work developing potential new vaccines and treatments, as well as new tests. That's science doing what it's supposed too, and quickly. I think we can be critical of the supply chain issues, certainly. No way should we be short of ventilators and PPE. Maybe purchasing managers aren't quite so familiar with obscure Chinese papers published in The Lancet as they should be. Maybe most of our PPE comes from China anyway, and so whilst we might ordinarily have expected to be OK, we were rather stranded when China shut down.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Woodster » 20 Mar 2020, 17:49

RogerS wrote:
Mike G wrote:You pick it up from surfaces, Roger, rather than the air. You have to be unlucky to breath it in. Apparently it is a very heavy molecule which falls out of the air rapidly.


I'm afraid that that's not what the latest research reported today in Medscape says. It remains in aerosol for hours and on surfaces for days. Type of surface not specified. Seem to recall reading harder surfaces such as metal and glass ...longer compared to, say, cardboard but long enough on cardboard to raise questions about the best way to handle delivery items.

EDIT: And then you come across another study which suggests the opposite :eusa-doh:


I’ve had quite a number of deliveries recently and I’ve been disposing of the cardboard and other packaging straight away into the recycling bin outdoors then washing my hands. I think one delivery driver was amused by the way I only handled the edges of one parcel! :lol:
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby StevieB » 20 Mar 2020, 18:29

Chaps - speaking as someone who works in Science, and manages a University Dept including several virologists, the following, in no particular order, might be helpful:

There are no absolutes in this situation, and advice and guidance is largely based on incomplete data and emerging data. What some see as a lack of coordination by some is actually the consequence of working in an evolving situation.

Scientific collaboration is unprecedented in this situation, but there are a limited number of specialist facilities that can work on the live virus or test patient samples. This will necessarily restrict progress. It is not something you can do in a standard lab - viral work like this requires negative air pressure environments for example to prevent spread and protect workers.

Survival of the virus particle (it is not a molecule) on different surfaces will vary based on a number of factors, including but not limited to, temperature, humidity, composition of the surface itself, number of particles and so on. In general terms, hard surfaces such as stainless steel will retain virus the best - stair rails, door handles etc.

Face masks are very little use to anyone. Their only advantage is if someone coughs while wearing one, the spread of droplets is restricted. They will NOT protect you from a virus. They may even make things worse - a moist rag next to your ace is an ideal breeding ground for all sorts of things.

There are thousands of scientific papers published every day, if not hundreds of thousands. Asking why a specific paper was not picked up on is easy in hindsight.

Developing a vaccine can take years. The normal way of doing this is to generate an antibody to a spike protein on the surface of the virus particle, using that protein in isolation and letting the body develop its own immunity, or by using an attenuated virus particle. The success of this depends on a number of factors, such as how fast the virus mutates (changes the structure of its spike proteins) how well the body can raise a challenge to a specific type of virus (poorly in the case of coronaviruses) and whether the virus is stable as a single strain or readily forms multiple strains (evidence suggests 2 strains for the current situation already, which may require different vaccines).

Development of a vaccine (18-24 months at best estimates) is one step, but manufacturing enough and distributing it to a world population of 7 billion people is quite a challenge and will also take a considerable amount of time.

Social distancing is not designed to stop infections, but to slow the spread such that the NHS does not become overwhelmed for critical care beds. To expect any country to hold reserve stock of material such as ventilators to cope with a pandemic is not reasonable. Expecting manufacturers to switch production from eg JCBs or cars to ventilators is to not understand modern manufacturing methods. Makes it look as if we are doing all we can to the public though, never forget the 'political' element behind any response - why do you think Boris is flanked by Scientific advisers at his daily briefings? It gives his words legitimacy.

Cases in China (Wuhan) have dropped to zero. This is much more likely to be because of a zero tolerance policy to breaking curfew than widespread immunity or a natural decline in contaminations. The big worry is that once restrictions are relaxed infections will rise again. The viral outbreak may by cyclical for all or us with repeated rounds of relaxation and restriction of movement going forwards - again to prevent frontline health services becoming overwhelmed.

Herd immunity - the point at which enough people have antibodies to the virus to prevent an outbreak becoming an epidemic or pandemic is about 80% (some low estimates are 60%). This does not stop people becoming infected but does stop widespread contagion.

I am rather busy currently trying to move to online delivery for over 1000 university students, and am by no means an expert in the area of virology, but I will try to answer questions if you have them to the best of my ability. This is unprecedented in modern times, and there is no obvious solution that is quick.

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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby kirkpoore1 » 20 Mar 2020, 18:34

Well Mike, that sucks. Just because your friend didn't react badly doesn't mean you won't . I'd check to find out when it's bad enough to go in so you don't wait too long.

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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Mike G » 20 Mar 2020, 18:40

Thanks Kirk. At the moment whilst I feel rough I'm not bad enough to really convince my wife that I'm properly ill, so I'm nowhere near hospital time yet. If and when breathing becomes an issue, I'm ringing 999.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Mike G » 20 Mar 2020, 18:43

Thanks for posting all that Steve. That has taken some writing, and I for one appreciate the effort and time. I hope this crisis leads to a revived respect for scientists of all descriptions, who have faced a ridiculous onslaught from the idiocracy in the last 3 or 4 years.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 20 Mar 2020, 18:48

Great post, Steve :text-bravo:
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby SamQ aka Ah! Q! » 20 Mar 2020, 18:51

Absolutely.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Malc2098 » 20 Mar 2020, 19:12

Here here. Thanks.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Doug » 20 Mar 2020, 19:16

RogerS wrote:The key question that no-one has asked AFAIK is since the Chinese doctors in Wuhan took the time and trouble to publish in The Lancet on 24th January a very detailed scientific article on their findings about this new very infectious and deadly virus ...why did our scientists and politicians ignore it and do SFA ?


If the chap on radio 4 today is to be believed they clearly haven’t ignored it as he was saying they are already at the animal testing stage with a vaccine & will move on to human testing in a few months.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 20 Mar 2020, 19:58

Doug wrote:
RogerS wrote:The key question that no-one has asked AFAIK is since the Chinese doctors in Wuhan took the time and trouble to publish in The Lancet on 24th January a very detailed scientific article on their findings about this new very infectious and deadly virus ...why did our scientists and politicians ignore it and do SFA ?


If the chap on radio 4 today is to be believed they clearly haven’t ignored it as he was saying they are already at the animal testing stage with a vaccine & will move on to human testing in a few months.


True. Clearly some did but whoever was advising the Govt really screwed up. People arriving at airports, no screening, no taking of temperature etc. OK..those are by no means infallible and a high temperature won't necessarily show in someone infected but not doing the full moodie. But if it only caught one or two...

Look at how Singapore went about managing the contacts of known infected people - then look at our somewhat lackadaisical approach.

The idea of 'herd immunity' - no other country did that. Now abandoned. But after a delay. Schools now shut. But after a delay. Pubs now shut - but after a delay.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Mike G » 20 Mar 2020, 21:11

Herd immunity was never policy. It was a clumsy piece of mis-speaking by someone trying to explain something off the cuff in laymans' terms. He got it wrong. There is a danger in always looking for someone to blame, when this is an utterly unprecedented event in the last 100 years.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 20 Mar 2020, 22:55

We will have to agree to disagree, Mike. I'm copying this from UKW. I have no reason whatosever to question Jake's integrity in this post.

XXX wrote:REALLY Jake? You're certainly closer to IC than I am (geographically at least) but are you seriously suggesting they deliberately set out just to "get their sums wrong"?


I said they were grossly negligent, not deliberately setting out to massacre people.

Surely it's far more likely that with the best will in the world, and especially with all the "unknown factor Xs" which have to be "best guessed" into the final equations, it's far more likely that someone (several people actually) made some genuine mistakes/miscalculations?


Yes, what they did was adapt their pandemic flu model and change various assumptions to reflect what they knew about this coronavirus. What they failed to do, and have admitted not doing, was to change the load on the NHS to reflect the demands placed by this coronavirus on general hospital and ICU wards. Instead, they left the NHS demand assumptions at the same % as used for viral pneumonia in their original pandemic flu model. As a consequence, and based on the projections on those assumptions, they reached the conclusion that the best strategy was to let the virus spread, and then incrementally up the social distancing to manage the load on the NHS so it was never overwhelmed.

There was then a worldwide outcry from epidemiologists, including the WHO and pretty much everyone not bound in with the UK govt policy that the policy was nuts, demanding to see the model. Boris announced the modelling would be released. 10 days later, the Imperial College paper was released (in place of the model itself, which remains undisclosed) in which they stated that their original recommended strategy would have led to 250k deaths but was not viable. In an interview with the FT Neil Ferguson (now in isolation, the lead Professor of the IC team) admitted this was because they had used the viral pneumonia NHS load statistics, which did not reflect any COVID-19 data, it being a much worse disease as we are seeing with our own eyes.

So no, I do not believe those people did their best. The modelling was negligent. It was clearly negligently audited.

They embarked on a plan of relatively light social intervention to favour economics and freedom, at the cost of 250k planned deaths. OK, that is a trade off any public health initiative has to adopt. But, they did so on the basis of favouring a model from Imperial College (there were others, some by people who were screaming at the govt that their strategy was insanely destructive) which gave them a figure they thought was acceptable based on an obviously and seriously incorrect assumption. And clearly did not audit the modelling to pick up the carried over false flu assumption. And it would have killed c1.5m instead of 250k, because they were assuming the death rate would be ~1% because the NHS would be within capacity. If the NHS gets overwhelmed (as it will do in London in 7-10 days, and is likely to do elsewhere in 3-4 weeks given the lack of seriousness of the interventions to date) the death toll from the experience of Wuhan and Lombardy is likely to be 6% of confirmed cases rather than 1%, ie ~1.5m dead.

So no, I do not think everyone has done their professional best. The absence of effort in the containment phase was driven by the assumption that the epidemic could be managed for herd immunity within NHS capacity. That assumption led to a nonchalance about the initial spread of the virus - it was quite desirable to set up immunity among schoolchildren for example - because they thought they could throttle it down later. All that was based on the completely negligent failure to update health service load to reflect actual experience with this coronavirus in all the other countries ahead of us.

I've never met anyone who hasn't made some mistakes in his/her professional life, sometimes pretty serious ones. And that includes me!


True. Doesn't mean you and I have not been negligent. I haven't personally been this negligent.

AND don't forget the time (and no doubt political/time) pressures all these "back room people" MUST have been working under for the last few weeks/months.


The Imperial College team was sloppy and arrogant. The government then took it easy and ignored alarm bells from 360 degrees, because they liked the answer the IC model gave and didn't audit it.

As I say, perhaps you KNOW better than I do, but overall, while I'll happily accept that mistakes have been made, and even that some unnecessary delays have maybe resulted, overall I think "we" (i.e. all of us) aren't doing too badly in the face of what is genuinely an unprecedented situation.


I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.


OK. It helps to understand what happened though. This makes Grenfell Towers public policy failings look like a mere nothing. It's OK for someone on the Imperial College not to update that critical assumption - that sort of thing happens all the time - it's up to the rest of the team to test, retest and re-re-test it before recommending govt action. It's then on the government to take all the models it is presented with and audit them all with microscopic detail before deciding on a course of action. The government set its strategy in February. On being forced under public pressure to publish the model, it took 10 days for Imperial College to realise their catastrophic error and then more time consumingly negotiate all the twisty corridors as to how to deal with that publicly. It wasn't hard to find.

I have never seen a worse bit of governance.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Phil » 21 Mar 2020, 11:40

Mike G wrote:Thanks for posting all that Steve. That has taken some writing, and I for one appreciate the effort and time. I hope this crisis leads to a revived respect for scientists of all descriptions, who have faced a ridiculous onslaught from the idiocracy in the last 3 or 4 years.



:text-+1:

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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Mike G » 21 Mar 2020, 11:45

Ringing a bell for service would certainly bring a swift end to my illness. It would also lead to the end of my posting here, and a sale of all my workshop equipment in short order. :lol: :lol:
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Andyp » 21 Mar 2020, 12:55

Having just contacted the Govt helpline this is what I need in order to collect my daughter on her return from Canada.
Signed attestation.
Livret Famille ( Official document proving she is my daughter)
Another signed declaration stating that there are no viable alternative methods of getting her home.
A copy of her flight ticket.
Copy of her train ticket (she is going to Rennes (2hrs away) 'cos no trains to Caen nor anywhere closer.
My passport
Prove of address
And she must sit as far away from me as possible in the car. We have a 7 seater so that's not difficult.

Nobody is using the term curfew but this is what we are under here.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Mike G » 21 Mar 2020, 13:03

Jeez, the French love their forms, don't they.

"Sorry, I don't speak French, officer. Can you say that again in English".....
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