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It’s getting closer

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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 08 Jun 2020, 15:40

Andyp wrote:And the authorities are happy to allow people to use their common sense. I hate that phase, there is nothing common about sense and never will be.


Mine is 'Lessons must be learned'.

They never are.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Rod » 10 Jun 2020, 16:39

Bit late in the day but I received a letter from the NHS Foundation Trust today classing me as a “person of risk for a severe illness”
I have to shield until 30th June.
I am now on their system as extremely vulnerable
so might get access to other supermarkets.

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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby SamQ aka Ah! Q! » 10 Jun 2020, 20:23

"Bit late in the day but I received a letter from the NHS Foundation Trust today classing me as a “person of risk for a severe illness”"


My father is 86, is the only member of his family in Northern Ireland, has C.O.P.D. (53% lung function) and a dicky ticker; these and associated secondary issues mean he can barely walk 50m before halting to rest. He has tried three times - via his G.P. - to get on the much vaunted 'vulnerable' list to qualify for home delivery. He was told (by the practice asthma nurse) "you are not sick enough"... :?

Given Rod's experience, and my oul' fella's continuing farce, I do question the competency and connection to the real world of at least two N.H.S. trust employees.... :shock:

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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Woodbloke » 11 Jun 2020, 10:53

Andyp wrote:Indeed. there is not a government in the world who have not come under criticism from their own populations.

I suspect there's been very little criticism of the way Jacinda Arden has handled the C19 pandemic in NZ - Rob
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 11 Jun 2020, 11:45

Woodbloke wrote:
Andyp wrote:Indeed. there is not a government in the world who have not come under criticism from their own populations.

I suspect there's been very little criticism of the way Jacinda Arden has handled the C19 pandemic in NZ - Rob


:text-+1:

In fact those countries that have managed Covid very well have one thing in common. They all have female PMs.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Andyp » 11 Jun 2020, 12:40

I wont argue that the NZ PM wins hands down on the popularity stakes but governing an isolated island (Ok, islands) with a population of less than 5 million with a population density of just 15 per sq km is a lot simpler than the more cosmopolitan, heavily and densely populated northern hemisphere nations with their sprawling metropolitan areas and reliance on public transport.
I wouldn't mind betting that more people travel by public transport dailiy in London then there are people in New Zealand.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 11 Jun 2020, 12:45

SamQ aka Ah! Q! wrote:
"Bit late in the day but I received a letter from the NHS Foundation Trust today classing me as a “person of risk for a severe illness”"


My father is 86, is the only member of his family in Northern Ireland, has C.O.P.D. (53% lung function) and a dicky ticker; these and associated secondary issues mean he can barely walk 50m before halting to rest. He has tried three times - via his G.P. - to get on the much vaunted 'vulnerable' list to qualify for home delivery. He was told (by the practice asthma nurse) "you are not sick enough"... :?

Given Rod's experience, and my oul' fella's continuing farce, I do question the competency and connection to the real world of at least two N.H.S. trust employees.... :shock:

Sam


Could you get your/his MP involved ?
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 11 Jun 2020, 15:57

Andyp wrote:I wont argue that the NZ PM wins hands down on the popularity stakes but governing an isolated island (Ok, islands) with a population of less than 5 million with a population density of just 15 per sq km is a lot simpler than the more cosmopolitan, heavily and densely populated northern hemisphere nations with their sprawling metropolitan areas and reliance on public transport.
I wouldn't mind betting that more people travel by public transport dailiy in London then there are people in New Zealand.


I take your point re use of public transport but you'd be surprised to know that we are only marginally higher percentage-wise than NZ. Of course, statistics can be used to prove virtually anything !

So perhaps a better metric to compare how the two countries fared is Covid deaths per capita. That should take into account your point about 5 million.

OK...are you ready ;) UK - deaths 618 per million

.
.
.
.
.
NZ ? Do you really want to know ?

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. Are you sure ? :lol:

.
..

OK. It's five.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby SamQ aka Ah! Q! » 11 Jun 2020, 17:33

Could you get your/his MP involved ?


Possibly, Roger, 'Norn Iron' politics are still largely tribal...and then there's Anne-Marie Trevellyan...will report back.

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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby MattS » 11 Jun 2020, 18:28

However you try to spin it our figures don’t compare well to other countries. I try not to get too annoyed by the NZ comparison - an island nation locking down, why didn’t we?

Both my daughters have birthdays in March one early and one mid. My wife and I speculated whether the first party would happen, it did. Then we thought the second definitely won’t and it did!!!
Last edited by MattS on 11 Jun 2020, 19:44, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Andyp » 11 Jun 2020, 18:50

Sorry Matt, I thought afterwards my comments could be edging towards political, not my intention.

We’ve had 4 cancelled birthdays here, 3 in march and 1 in April, a few years back we had birthdays in the family on 23, 24, 25, 26, 27(3) March and 2 April. It used to be one long party.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby MattS » 11 Jun 2020, 19:45

That’s OK Andy - edited my post which was a bit too political as well!
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby MY63 » 11 Jun 2020, 22:33

Birthdays are very difficult my mum passed early in April from covid 19 my wife bought a yellow rose as mum always loved yellow roses.
Her birthday would have been 25th May this happened.

Image2020-06-11_09-40-26 by my0771, on Flickr

If we had locked down a week earlier chances are my mum would still be here,
I am trying not to be political but huge mistakes have been made and these people are so arrogant.
There are so many examples I would not know where to start.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Malc2098 » 12 Jun 2020, 10:12

I don't know what to say Michael. Your pain must be unbearable.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby MY63 » 12 Jun 2020, 16:23

Thanks Malcolm I appreciate you comments,
I don't really feel anything at the moment mum lived in sheltered accommodation and a number of residents have passed away in the last 6 weeks.
The day before lockdown there was a funeral for one of her neighbours and we feel that is where it started.
We have not been allowed to clear her flat so we are in a weird limbo.
I did not really want to share but I am worried that people might think this is going away because the Government have decided to move away from lockdown despite medical advice to the contrary.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Andyp » 12 Jun 2020, 17:10

Having my father tell me on the phone while he was in hospital that he did not expect to come home I can only guess at the anger and frustration you and thousands of others must be feeling at the moment.
It is important for you and others to share their experiences in order that we dont forget nor get complacent.
cheers

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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Malc2098 » 12 Jun 2020, 17:14

I'm already convinced, Michael. I stay at home making my guitar for as long as I can. I haven't been to see my new granddaughter, over two months old now.

Notwithstanding what's happening in the country to the police, their lack of political support, especially in London, to cities where historical statures are pulled down, proposed to be taken down or are boarded up, I have no doubt that there will be a second wave, and it wouldn't surprise me from all the disorder and early relaxation of lockdown that it'll be just as bad as the first wave.

I'm staying locked down in Mid-Devon.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 12 Jun 2020, 17:45

Malc2098 wrote:I'm already convinced, Michael. I stay at home making my guitar for as long as I can. I haven't been to see my new granddaughter, over two months old now.

Notwithstanding what's happening in the country to the police, their lack of political support, especially in London, to cities where historical statures are pulled down, proposed to be taken down or are boarded up, I have no doubt that there will be a second wave, and it wouldn't surprise me from all the disorder and early relaxation of lockdown that it'll be just as bad as the first wave.

I'm staying locked down in Mid-Devon.


Spot on, Malc. But you might like to think about moving up North as it looks as if your R-value down there might be going above the 1 again.

Re the thuggery exhibited, I did have to chortle at a transcript I heard from the radio. One BLM fascist ...oops, sorry guys, 'supporter'...was ranting on about 'pulling down everything that was built using slave labour'. The presenter asked him if he meant all slaves in the UK.."Yes, yes, yes" came the reply as he foamed at the mouth.

"Well" said the presenter in his best Geordie accent "bloody good luck with Hadrians' Wall then".
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Woodbloke » 12 Jun 2020, 18:00

Malc2098 wrote:.... I have no doubt that there will be a second wave, and it wouldn't surprise me from all the disorder and early relaxation of lockdown that it'll be just as bad as the first wave.

I'm staying locked down in Mid-Devon.


I think you're right Malc. I was reading yesterday on the Beeb I think that some medical professor reckoned there would be another wave sometime within the next two weeks; certainly by the end of the month.

I'm staying locked down in Salisbury, unless I can be convinced that it's safe (within reason) to venture further afield - Rob

Edit - Hadrian's Wall was built (if memory serves) by the Roman Legionary who, as far as I understand, weren't slaves, though I do stand to be serverially corrected :lol: - Rob
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 12 Jun 2020, 18:10

Woodbloke wrote:
Malc2098 wrote:.... I have no doubt that there will be a second wave, and it wouldn't surprise me from all the disorder and early relaxation of lockdown that it'll be just as bad as the first wave.

I'm staying locked down in Mid-Devon.


I think you're right Malc. I was reading yesterday on the Beeb I think that some medical professor reckoned there would be another wave sometime within the next two weeks; certainly by the end of the month.

I'm staying locked down in Salisbury, unless I can be convinced that it's safe (within reason) to venture further afield - Rob

Edit - Hadrian's Wall was built (if memory serves) by the Roman Legionary who, as far as I understand, weren't slaves, though I do stand to be serverially corrected :lol: - Rob


Your daughter should be able to tell you, Rob !
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 13 Jun 2020, 07:29

I'm really confused now. Reading the paper today, they are now saying that it 'probably' is OK to relax the 2m rule down to 1m. So what has changed ? If 1m is OK now then why was it not OK last week ? Or the week before ?

Has the virus changed its infectiousness ? I don't think so.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby MY63 » 13 Jun 2020, 15:47

RogerS wrote:I'm really confused now. Reading the paper today, they are now saying that it 'probably' is OK to relax the 2m rule down to 1m. So what has changed ? If 1m is OK now then why was it not OK last week ? Or the week before ?

Has the virus changed its infectiousness ? I don't think so.


Don't be confused Roger nothing has changed.

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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby StevieB » 14 Jun 2020, 09:03

RogerS wrote:I'm really confused now. Reading the paper today, they are now saying that it 'probably' is OK to relax the 2m rule down to 1m. So what has changed ? If 1m is OK now then why was it not OK last week ? Or the week before ?

Has the virus changed its infectiousness ? I don't think so.


It is because the 2m rule was never a scientific limit and is only one of a number of factors that influences transmission between individuals. There are a huge number of other factors - duration being the most important, but also the 'shedding' level of an infected individual (which can vary hugely) and the environment in which the distancing is taking place - outside with a breeze compared to indoors in a contained space for example.

Unfortunately, as is human nature, we fixate on one thing as being 'good' and another as 'bad' and then extrapolate from this dodgy premise. Why should 2.01m be safe but 1.99m be unsafe for example? Patently it cannot be. If I sit 2m away from everyone at an outdoor cafe, but the person in my seat before me shed virus particles everywhere while they drank their coffee, I am feeling safe but clearly am not.

The most successful was to protect individuals is to keep them isolated - worked in Wuhan but does rather limit personal freedom and economic survival. So we need to relax that restriction, with the rate of relaxation balanced by the rise in risk of infections growing. Will they grow? Absolutely. Hopefully we are more prepared for the early warning signs now and will treat any rise seriously.

The over-riding reason for relaxing the 2m rule is economic (and therefore political - when furlough ends nobody wants all those people joining the unemployment statistics, people tend not to vote for the government in power if they feel they lost their job because of their policies). The hospitality sector in particular cannot survive at 2m distancing since its whole premise is to get as many tables/people into a space as it can! Even the MPs calling for a relaxation to 1m are citing economic imperatives for this. It will be the response to the consequences that are key to outcomes, not whether an arbitrary distance is maintained or what size that arbitrary distance is.

Even the R number is not a single number that is easy to calculate, and then varies again by location. The R number presented in the briefings is actually an amalgamation of multiple measures/methods, each with wide confidence intervals. These are complex statistical estimates and those that calculate then understand their limited accuracy. This cannot be conveyed in a press briefing however - which politician wants to stand up and say 'we are 95% confident the R number is between 0.5 and 1.4'?! That would be the statistical way of presenting it, but instead they have to present a 'mean' figure of R=0.9 as an absolute, because that is something the public can understand and track over time.

Bottom line, as always, is do what you can personally to stay safe - further distances are better, limiting social contact is better, but your own level of personal risk will determine in large part your approach. You can leave letters from the postman for 72 hrs, bleach your Tesco's shop and wear an ffp3 mask to bed if you want, but it will not guarantee immunity, only reduce risk. Even a vaccine may not grant immunity (trials are ongoing but it is too early to tell their outcome yet) but that still remains our best hope. Until then it is all about balancing personal freedom, economic cost and political gamesmanship. Not that I am sticking up for politicians particularly, but it is easy to analyse a situation with hindsight and point fingers. Very few people were calling for immediate lockdown in January when this originated in Wuhan, and very few of the public would have obeyed it if we had been asked to!
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby RogerS » 14 Jun 2020, 09:31

:text-bravo: :text-goodpost:

Thanks, Steve...a voice of sanity in these troubled times.
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Re: It’s getting closer

Postby Malc2098 » 14 Jun 2020, 10:07

RogerS wrote::text-bravo: :text-goodpost:

Thanks, Steve...a voice of sanity in these troubled times.



:text-+1:

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