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ICE car sales Ban

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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 17 Nov 2020, 22:24

Blackswanwood wrote:
RogerS wrote:
Blackswanwood wrote:UBS released some research a few weeks ago which predicted that the cost of manufacture of an EV car will be the same as an ICE by 2024. My personal view is that cost parity will be the tipping point.
....


But only relevant if you are in the market for a new car. Which, I suggest, for those of us not having company cars is less than 0.00001% of the population. Or you're a Motability customer.


I don’t think that is the case Roger. Over the last ten years there has been a trend which is now accelerating further to move away from company cars (most of which were perk cars rather than essential vehicles). The insurance market has seen a shift in the volume of cars insured on motor fleet policies to individual policies as a consequence. The personal finance market for cars has also grown significantly.

One other factor that will play a part is banks responding to public sentiment and government policy to support environmentally responsible lending. If the cost of finance to produce petrol, build or upgrade the factory for a plant to produce ICE cars, run the dealership and then finance the car goes up by 50bps compared to the EV value chain it’s a game changer.

Cheers


Up here in the North, pre-Covid and when, if you remember, the car industry was going through a really bad patch with garages closing left, right and centre, my mate (who is fairly senior in Motability) worked out that they were responsible for something like 75% of all new car registrations.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Blackswanwood » 17 Nov 2020, 23:07

RogerS wrote:
Up here in the North, pre-Covid and when, if you remember, the car industry was going through a really bad patch with garages closing left, right and centre, my mate (who is fairly senior in Motability) worked out that they were responsible for something like 75% of all new car registrations.


Interesting - that must mean Motability scheme usage is massively weighted to the North as they account for circa 10% in the UK.

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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 18 Nov 2020, 07:42

Blackswanwood wrote:
RogerS wrote:
Up here in the North, pre-Covid and when, if you remember, the car industry was going through a really bad patch with garages closing left, right and centre, my mate (who is fairly senior in Motability) worked out that they were responsible for something like 75% of all new car registrations.


Interesting - that must mean Motability scheme usage is massively weighted to the North as they account for circa 10% in the UK.

Cheers


I'll ask my mate for more detailed figures
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 18 Nov 2020, 09:11

Does strike me that the manufacturers are really confusing people with all the variants on a theme. Excluding EV anoraks, how many of you know or can explain the difference between .....

BEV. PHEV,HEV, MHEV diesel and MHEV petrol ?

I know I can't and so how can anyone make an informed choice ? Which ones of these will be no longer available post-2030 ban on ICE ?

Has there been any accurate and unbiased research into the true cost of building an EV (of whatever variant) ? Or the TCO in green terms of an EV over its lifetime ? An accurate assessment of the potential for secondhand EV's ? Those batteries ? Tesla reckon that once the battery is 90% or below then it needs replacing. Certainly at 80% it's on the way out. What's that in terms of miles travelled or age of vehicle?

Too many questions, it seems to me.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Woodster » 18 Nov 2020, 12:14

It’s simple really. Anything other than purely battery technology will be included in the 2030 sales ban. ;)

https://currentev.com/blog/bev-erev-phe ... ictionary/

Or put another way, if you want a new car after 2030 it will have to be an EV.

Blackswanwood wrote:
Interesting - that must mean Motability scheme usage is massively weighted to the North as they account for circa 10% in the UK.

Cheers


Yes I’ve just checked, you’re right it is only 10% of new car sales nationally.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 18 Nov 2020, 13:17

Woodster wrote:It’s simple really. Anything other than purely battery technology will be included in the 2030 sales ban. ;)

https://currentev.com/blog/bev-erev-phe ... ictionary/

Or put another way, if you want a new car after 2030 it will have to be an EV.

Blackswanwood wrote:
Interesting - that must mean Motability scheme usage is massively weighted to the North as they account for circa 10% in the UK.

Cheers


Yes I’ve just checked, you’re right it is only 10% of new car sales nationally.


It depends on your timeframe. At the time I was referring to, new car sales had virtually reached rock bottom. And again, July 2020, motability was 15%. Curious to know the split between fleet and business. Where we got to this point was because one post was suggesting that fleet and business ownership was dropping relative to private sales. The figures from SMMT suggest otherwise.

Woodster...you glossed over this

Has there been any accurate and unbiased research into the true cost of building an EV (of whatever variant) ? Or the TCO in green terms of an EV over its lifetime ? An accurate assessment of the potential for secondhand EV's ? Those batteries ? Tesla reckon that once the battery is 90% or below then it needs replacing. Certainly at 80% it's on the way out. What's that in terms of miles travelled or age of vehicle?

Too many questions, it seems to me.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Woodster » 18 Nov 2020, 14:17

No, I didn’t gloss over it, I ignored it as irrelevant to the conversation. ;) I’ve driven dozens of cars over the past 45 years years and at no point did I even think once where the materials to build it came from, not even for the battery! And I don’t believe for one minute that you have either, although I could be wrong. You’re only trying to find objections to justify your decision not to buy one. Many folks don’t though and the number of EV buyers are increasing as rapidly as Diesels are declining. I’ll post this graph again to reinforce the point.

You don’t have to like the change but you do have to accept it’s happening.

0CCD784F-2AD0-4F48-8715-1532708632A9.png
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If you live long enough I expect your final journey will be in one of these. At least no one will hear any complaints. :lol:

https://www.electrichearse.co.uk/
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 18 Nov 2020, 14:41

Woodster wrote:No, I didn’t gloss over it, I ignored it as irrelevant to the conversation. ;) ....


No it's very relevant to the discussion put forward by EV-warriors that EV is 'good'...ICE is 'bad'. I'm not convinced if you look at the overall picture. Hence asking if there were any unbiased research into the TCO etc.

Your original starting point was, I agree, that diesels are bad for the environment - particulates etc . So ban diesels. Keep petrol.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby 9fingers » 18 Nov 2020, 15:46

At one time, long term ownership of an ICE vehicle and secondhand purchases meant a fairly high chance that a replacement engine would be required as a major expenditure well before the rest of the vehicle was worn out.

In the last decade or even 2(?) we have got used to engines lasting at least the whole life of the car and modest annual bills for servicing and consumables.

With the advent of EVs we are back to the high probability of battery packs needing replacing in the lifetime of the vehicle at high cost similar to the previous engine replacement costs. We will either have to stump up the cost £ or prematurely scrap the vehicle with a higher environmental cost and the need to shell out on a replacement.
For the user who is used to always having a nearly new vehicle, I guess there will be leasing packages with the cost of degrading batteries covered with a mixture of warranty and amortised into the lease price.

For users like myself typically buying at a few years old and expecting to keep at least 10 further years, I will have to set aside funds for at least 1 new battery pack.
Furthermore, obtaining a credible measure of the state of a battery pack on a SH purchase could be difficult.

At my age (nearly) of 67, my current vehicle is likely to be due replacement around the time of the proposed ICE ban in 2030. Maybe I should be looking at a petrol hybrid, PHEV or just maybe a mHEV around 2029 as my last car purchase and accept that my current diesel Skoda will have near zero value or worthy of a scrappage allowance if such a thing is available.

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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Woodster » 18 Nov 2020, 15:47

I can’t disagree with that. Petrol are far cleaner and could have been part of our motoring future especially with companies like Mazda touting 80mpg Petrol engined cars. Sadly we’ve all been lumped in with dirty Diesels just for a few pennies per mile or the “I have to tow a caravan every day” mentality.

I will be keeping my car for a few more years until EV’s are more within the price I want to pay but I must admit I’m looking forward to it because they’re apparently very much nicer to drive. Are EV’s completely clean and without their own issues? No of course not but we’ll no doubt get over it and as an ex mechanic I don’t think Diesels were ever a good idea for the vast majority of the motoring public.

I found this article interesting.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorri ... d057cd71f8
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 18 Nov 2020, 16:20

The National Grid and distribution companies such as Western Power are well along the road to sorting out the infrastructure to support charging of EVs. It's the last 10ft that's going to be (and already is) the problem.

I actually enjoy driving a lot. Prefer a manual to automatic and prefer not to have any gizmos such as lane control etc. So driving around in a hairdryer doesn't suit me ...unless it was a 4WD Tesla :D
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Lons » 18 Nov 2020, 22:23

Woodster wrote:I can’t disagree with that. Petrol are far cleaner and could have been part of our motoring future especially with companies like Mazda touting 80mpg Petrol engined cars. Sadly we’ve all been lumped in with dirty Diesels just for a few pennies per mile or the “I have to tow a caravan every day” mentality.

I will be keeping my car for a few more years until EV’s are more within the price I want to pay


I think I'll be keeping mine for a few more years this time while I wait to see what develops and despite the insistence that 2030 is the cut off date I suspect that might well change in either direction, 10 years is a lifetime in politics. ;)

The reason there are so many diesels on UK roads as we all know is down to government action started by Gordon Brown in 2001 with VED tax incentives to buy "clean" diesel cars instead of "dirty" petrol which manufacturers of course responded to so within 10 years they accounted for more tan 50% of sales.That was their first mistake the second being that the idiots hadn't realised how much fuel revenue they would lose and then had to penalise diesel fuel tax to get it back.
Environmental reasons is one thing but the financial situation will change for EVs when there is no other choice, the money has to come form somewhere.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Lons » 18 Nov 2020, 22:34

I wouldn't willingly go back to a manual Roger, or 2 wheel drive for that matter, I also still enjoy driving but with various auto modes available at the touch of a button and paddles to use manual gears it's the best of both worlds imo and suits me.
There's something special certainly about flicking through the gears of a nice gearbox with your hand caressing the stick ( changed that from knob :eusa-whistle: ) but the auto is quicker and safer with both hands doing the steering.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Lons » 18 Nov 2020, 22:35

Duplicated :oops:
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Cabinetman » 19 Nov 2020, 00:23

Been driving automatics in the states a lot and fairly appalled at how slow they are off the line compared to a clutch and manual gearbox, the worst one was a jeep wrangler it was positively dangerous and it had a huge engine, it just didn’t seem to do anything!
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Woodster » 19 Nov 2020, 00:54

Luckily the number of Diesels on UK roads is dropping rapidly. Following today’s announcement it will probably accelerate further.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/299 ... d-kingdom/

I’ve only owned one automatic and I liked driving it. Issues of fuel economy and the high repair cost for auto boxes has always put me off. Obviously though EV’s are effectively auto so I’ll be quite happy about driving one when the price drops. :D

My last car was quite old at nearly six years when I traded it in so I’m not overly concerned about EV maintenance and repairs as many of the manufacturers are offering an 8 year battery warranty even now. With new battery tech due to come online in the coming years that warranty period could easily increase further.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Lons » 19 Nov 2020, 01:28

The autos I drove in the states and Canada were the same big 6 cylinder engines, clunky auto boxes, wooly steering and horrible suspension but totally different are the cars in the UK. I had an Audi A6 quatro auto with a sweet box and same performance as the previous manual though figures said the auto was quicker, same with my current MB GLC which is a very quick car, both with only 2 litre engines. My wife is on her second Mini with an Auito box and same story. Economy these days is very different as well as in most cases the autos change at the right revs and it's claimed some including mine are more economical than if it was a manual but as that isn't available I can't check, certainly I have no complaints and get mid 40s with spirited driving and into 50s if I drive like a granny.
Long gone are the old days with poor 4 speed auto or less and 10 miles a gallon worse, my 9 speed box is very effective as is the 8 speed Audi and the mini.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 19 Nov 2020, 09:09

Here are my predictions.

In four to five years time, when the batteries in the 1st and 2nd gen BEVs are reaching end-of-life and folk who have gone and bought a secondhand BEV have realised that they've bought a pup, will see a drastic drop in the secondhand price of BEVs. That will deter people from buying other secondhand BEV's (even newer ones with better batteries) because of their bad reputation. Fuelled by social media, of course. Who'd buy a new EV if their secondhand value is that bad ?

So I reckon you will see a surge in new car sales of petrol ICE's and a surge in the secondhand value of same. The sales of new EVs will drop.

The unnecessary complexity of hybrid EVs (of whichever flavour or complexity) will come home to roost and their secondhand value will plummet. Especially if you factor in dying batteries.

The Govt in power at the time will realise that they are losing revenue and will be under pressure to remove the subsidy given to EV drivers of zero VED. But, because of the above bad press, and the fall in new EV sales, they will be under pressure in the opposite direction to re-introduce subsidies to encourage people to buy new EVs.

Meanwhile, the Govt will also be seeing a gradual drop in fuel tax revenue and looking to the future, as EVs gradually form a higher percentage of the vehicles on the road, see that falling even further. That money will have to come from somewhere. Road use tax ? Penalises rural communities.

And, of course, this elephant in the room as far as charging EVs is concerned won't have gone away.

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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Cabinetman » 19 Nov 2020, 09:23

Hi Lons, your experience of European automatics doesn’t sound too bad at all, yes clunky and woolly, also drove a 5.8ltr Ford pickup and performance was a joke to be honest. Ian
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Lons » 19 Nov 2020, 10:05

Hi Cabinetman
I was always completely against Autos due to early experiences when the really were pathetic and despite what friends told me I flatly refused to have another until we decided my wife would be better with one and started to test drive, it was an eye opener even though they were all small cars and we eventually bought her a Mini Clubman then I started looking for myself and test drove most of the main makes in family sized cars eventually buying the A6 and as I said my current car is auto as well and I won't go back to a manual.

The last car I had in the US was a huge top of the rang Chrysler 300, very comfortable if you wanted to float but no feel and nowhere near as quick as my standard engine SUV same story in Canada and even the Ozzie ones were cumbersome. Comparing them with ours is apples and pears.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Woodster » 19 Nov 2020, 12:25

Infrastructure, range, performance, battery life and any other objections you can make up don’t seem to have affected Norway.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/01/se ... are-of-82/

I’m not sure your second hand EV comment stands scrutiny Roger. The Nissan Leaf came out in 2010.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... ost-states

I still don’t understand the charging objections either. I don’t have a petrol pump at my house so if I need fuel I have to drive to a petrol station. So what’s the problem of driving your car to what will soon be one of thousands of supermarket, DIY store, cinema complex or general car parks etc and getting a charge whilst your shopping? I have off street parking and could have a charger at home but I certainly wouldn’t actually need one.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Woodster » 19 Nov 2020, 12:37

Charging.

https://www.energylivenews.com/2020/08/ ... ive-years/

https://www.energylivenews.com/2020/07/ ... s-by-2025/

https://inews.co.uk/news/technology/ele ... oom-447159

I might be wrong but this doesn’t look like a mass objection to EV’s, in fact quite the opposite?

I probably linked this before but in case the topic comes up again.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorri ... 0af41271f8
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 19 Nov 2020, 19:32

Woodster wrote:Infrastructure, range, performance, battery life and any other objections you can make up don’t seem to have affected Norway.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/01/se ... are-of-82/


All that this chart shows is the number of new cars sold in Norway in that period. To try and infer any corollary with the UK is meaningless as you are ignoring the context. The demographics, the culture, the housing stock ...does Norway have vast estates of 2-up/2-down terraces ? I think not. Did the Norwegian Govt provide any subsidy or encouragement to go EV ? All these questions. And compared to us the numbers are derisory ...about 20,000 compared to over 300,000 for the same period.

I’m not sure your second hand EV comment stands scrutiny Roger. The Nissan Leaf came out in 2010.



Greecarreports....certainly they will give a balanced viewpoint !

Woodster wrote:I still don’t understand the charging objections either. I don’t have a petrol pump at my house so if I need fuel I have to drive to a petrol station. So what’s the problem of driving your car to what will soon be one of thousands of supermarket, DIY store, cinema complex or general car parks etc and getting a charge whilst your shopping? I have off street parking and could have a charger at home but I certainly wouldn’t actually need one.


Because it simply doesn't work that way. I go to the garage and I have four or more pumps available. I'm out in under 10 minutes. Try doing that with an EV ...yeah, yeah. I know there are a few rapid charges etc but few and far between .....or manufacturer limited like Tesla. But if you live in a terrace like in the picture or even in the leafy suburbs of Twickenham where they double-park on some roads. It won't be a question if range-anxiety but find-a-charging-point anxiety.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby Lons » 20 Nov 2020, 11:50

I think the home charging issue will be very difficult to overcome in some areas. My son lives in the local county town in a typical old Victorian terraced house, he works mainly from home but often has to drive to the office or to see a client or partner some distance away and at short notice, DiL is a practice nurse/manager who also can be called out at very short notice, both need their cars always on hand and ready and they lead very busy lives. It's a rare occurrence when they can park either car anywhere near their own house and often the only spaces can be streets away.
Not insurmountable but the thought of DiL being called out late at night to an urgent patient many miles away possibly being stranded and at risk is not nice to contemplate.

WiFi charging is an interesting concept and I can see how that might work if that type of point was possible to locate in public places like a car park maybe with the capacity to charge dozens of cars at the same time but there's aways to go yet.
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Re: ICE car sales Ban

Postby RogerS » 20 Nov 2020, 12:06

:text-goodpost:
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